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Interpreting a low P value


When a health authority introduced a new community based vaccine promotion team, vaccination rates for the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine improved over the next two years. The improvement was statistically significant, with a one sided P value of less than 0.01. Which of the following, if any, are true?


a) Confounding is unlikely because of the low P value

b) If the vaccination rates were varying randomly over time then the probability of a result like this or better would be less than 1 in 100

c) The difference in vaccination rates is likely to be important

d) The team approach can be recommended as better than the old approach